Summary:

Ben Holcomb, and Andrew Glenn met up with my Dad and I in Battle Creek, and left Tuesday night around 9:45PM. We made it to Bloomington, IL and stayed the night. In the morning we headed towards Springfield, were we joined up with some other fellow chasers, including Danny Neal, and Adam Lucio, and then headed west towards Pittsfield, IL. Storms fired in Missouri, so our "caravan of chasers" headed west towards Hannibal, MO, where we met Scott Bennett, and continued NW towards Edina, MO, where we intercepted a tornado warned cell, and saw a huge wall cloud, with amazing inflow. After the storms went linear, we headed towards Kirksville to check out the damage, but the roads were blocked off, and it was getting dark. So we started the long journey home, going north into Iowa, where we stopped and ate at Subway with Jason Loving. We then continued our way home through Illinois, and arrived back home at about 7:00AM.

Full Recap:

Tomorrow is shaping up to be a decent severe weather day. If the morning convection can clear early enough for afternoon heating, and rapid destabilization takes place, we could be in for a few tornadoes in Central IL. CAPE values into the 2000+ J/kg at 0Z, LI's around -7 and excellent LCL's around Central IL make it prime territory. Excellent shear will be in place, with SFC to H5 crossovers at almost 90 degrees.

Hodographs also look excellent, with big curvature, representing excellent shear throughout all the levels of the atmosphere. The key thing we will need to watch, is how quickly the morning convection clears out, and also get on the first cells that initiate, as it's also a question as to how fast these cells will group together and become a linear mess as the NAM and GFS models are predicting. A MCS will develop, possibly a derecho, with very strong winds, hail, and embedded meso-vortices, with possible tornadoes, associated with excellent shear in the environment. The NAM Significant Tornado Parameter also paints a nice bullseye over North Central IL, with a tornado index of 7 to 8.